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Perspectives in multilevel decision-making in the process industry

Braulio BRUNAUD, Ignacio E. GROSSMANN

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第3期页码 256-270 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2017049

摘要： Decisions in supply chains are hierarchically organized. Strategic decisions involve the long-term planning of the structure of the supply chain network. Tactical decisions are mid-term plans to allocate the production and distribution of materials, while operational decisions are related to the daily planning of the execution of manufacturing operations. These planning processes are conducted independently with minimal exchange of information between them. Achieving a better coordination between these processes allows companies to capture benefits that are currently out of their reach and improve the communication among their functional areas. We propose a network representation for the multilevel decision structure and analyze the components that are involved in finding integrated solutions that maximize the sum of the benefits of all nodes of the decision network. Although such task is very challenging, significant research progress has been made in each component of this structure. An overview of strategic models, mid-term planning models, and scheduling models is presented to address the solution of each node in the decision network. Coordination mechanisms for converging the integrated solutions are also analyzed, including solving large-scale models, multiobjective optimization, bi-level programming, and decomposition. We conclude by summarizing the challenges that hinder the full integration of multilevel decision making in supply chain management.

关键词： supply chain optimization enterprise-wide optimization multilevel optimization planning scheduling

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三峡工程论证决策过程及其实践检验

潘家铮

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第7期页码 4-8

摘要：

举世瞩目的三峡水利枢纽工程是世界上规模最大的水电站，也是中国有史以来建设的最大型水利水电工程。2010年10月26日，三峡水库蓄水首次达到设计水位175 m，这标志着其防洪、发电、航运等各项功能达到设计要求。三峡工程从构想、论证、设计、建设至竣工全面投入运行历时近百年。当初兴建三峡工程的构想是如何提出的？三峡工程究竟起什么作用？存在什么分歧意见？是如何进行论证的？论证的结论怎样？这是许多人关心而又不太了解的，笔者在文中做了扼要的介绍，以纪念世纪之梦的实现。

关键词：三峡工程论证决策过程

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Applying system dynamics to strategic decision making in construction

SangHyun LEE

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第1期页码 35-40 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2017002

摘要： The author discusses the application of System Dynamics to high-level strategic simulation in construction. In particular, System Dynamics’ strength on representing feedback processes, aggregation, soft variables, and continuous simulation clock for high-level simulation are discussed using real modeling examples. From this exercise, it is concluded that System Dynamics offers a great potential for strategic simulation in construction. Further, the author proposes a comprehensive simulation framework that integrates System Dynamics and Discrete Event Simulation for a strategic decision making process in construction where operational details should be taken into account.

关键词： strategic project management construction management system dynamics feedback process hybrid simulation

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Decision support for the development, simulation and optimization of dynamic process models

Norbert Asprion, Roger Böttcher, Jan Schwientek, Johannes Höller, Patrick Schwartz, Charlie Vanaret, Michael Bortz

《化学科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第2期页码 210-220 doi: 10.1007/s11705-021-2046-x

摘要： Simulation is besides experimentation the major method for designing, analyzing and optimizing chemical processes. The ability of simulations to reflect real process behavior strongly depends on model quality. Validation and adaption of process models are usually based on available plant data. Using such a model in various simulation and optimization studies can support the process designer in his task. Beneath steady state models there is also a growing demand for dynamic models either to adapt faster to changing conditions or to reflect batch operation. In this contribution challenges of extending an existing decision support framework for steady state models to dynamic models will be discussed and the resulting opportunities will be demonstrated for distillation and reactor examples.

关键词： decision support multicriteria optimization model validation dynamic model sensitivity analysis

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orientation determination of multi-feature mechanical parts in selective laser melting via multi-objective decision

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第18卷第2期 doi: 10.1007/s11465-022-0737-8

摘要： Selective laser melting (SLM) is a unique additive manufacturing (AM) category that can be used to manufacture mechanical parts. It has been widely used in aerospace and automotive using metal or alloy powder. The build orientation is crucial in AM because it affects the as-built part, including its part accuracy, surface roughness, support structure, and build time and cost. A mechanical part is usually composed of multiple surface features. The surface features carry the production and design knowledge, which can be utilized in SLM fabrication. This study proposes a method to determine the build orientation of multi-feature mechanical parts (MFMPs) in SLM. First, the surface features of an MFMP are recognized and grouped for formulating the particular optimization objectives. Second, the estimation models of involved optimization objectives are established, and a set of alternative build orientations (ABOs) is further obtained by many-objective optimization. Lastly, a multi-objective decision making method integrated by the technique for order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution and cosine similarity measure is presented to select an optimal build orientation from those ABOs. The weights of the feature groups and considered objectives are achieved by a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Two case studies are reported to validate the proposed method with numerical results, and the effectiveness comparison is presented. Physical manufacturing is conducted to prove the performance of the proposed method. The measured average sampling surface roughness of the most crucial feature of the bracket in the original orientation and the orientations obtained by the weighted sum model and the proposed method are 15.82, 10.84, and 10.62 μm, respectively. The numerical and physical validation results demonstrate that the proposed method is desirable to determine the build orientations of MFMPs with competitive results in SLM.

关键词： selective laser melting (SLM) build orientation determination multi-feature mechanical part (MFMP) fuzzy analytical hierarchy process multi-objective decision making (MODM)

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Sequential degradation-based burn-in test with multiple periodic inspections

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 519-530 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0166-0

摘要： Burn-in has been proven effective in identifying and removing defective products before they are delivered to customers. Most existing burn-in models adopt a one-shot scheme, which may not be sufficient enough for identification. Borrowing the idea from sequential inspections for remaining useful life prediction and accelerated lifetime test, this study proposes a sequential degradation-based burn-in model with multiple periodic inspections. At each inspection epoch, the posterior probability that a product belongs to a normal one is updated with the inspected degradation level. Based on the degradation level and the updated posterior probability, a product can be disposed, put into field use, or kept in the test till the next inspection epoch. We cast the problem into a partially observed Markov decision process to minimize the expected total burn-in cost of a product, and derive some interesting structures of the optimal policy. Then, algorithms are provided to find the joint optimal inspection period and number of inspections in steps. A numerical study is also provided to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

关键词： burn-in degradation multiple inspections Wiener process partially observed Markov decision process

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Corporate governance impact on banking risk

Mahdi JEMMALI, Bassem SALHI

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2020年第7卷第2期页码 182-195 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0034-3

摘要： This study aims to determine the relationship between several factors of governance and the level of risk in 10 Tunisian banks during an analysis period of eight years. We propose an important empirical question and examine the internal mechanisms of governance aimed at reducing financial risks. This estimation is based on a model with a single equation that examines variables relative to governance and credit risk to determine their impact on banking financials. Results demonstrate that the internal mechanisms of governance present diverging effects on the financial risk of the Tunisian banks in our case study (i.e., credit risk). Moreover, making applications work by putting together a process and model for banking risk is important. This model can be applied in any bank, and the results can be used to make decisions in real time.

关键词： bank governance banking risk process decision modeling architecture

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基于犹豫模糊决策矩阵的犹豫模糊多准则共识群决策方法 Article

Jie DING, Ze-shui XU, Hu-chang LIAO

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2017年第18卷第11期页码 1679-1692 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.1601546

摘要：本文建立了两种关于犹豫模糊多准则群共识决策的方法，并使用犹豫模糊决策矩阵（hesitant fuzzy decision matrices, HFDMs）表示专家的偏好。

关键词：多准则群决策；群共识；共识达成方法；犹豫模糊决策矩阵；集成算子

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集成产品开发规划的任务调度

鲁建厦,陈呈频,兰秀菊,陈勇,谢列卫

《中国工程科学》 2004年第6卷第5期页码 56-60

摘要：

在阐述集成产品开发（IPD）任务特点的基础上，研究了集成产品开发任务的耦合性和层次性，建立了分层分布式规划的策略，并引入代价矩阵概念，给出了任务调度模型和相应的匈牙利算法，并用实例演示了计算过程。

关键词：集成产品开发任务调度过程规划目标决策

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Convergence to real-time decision making

James M. TIEN

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2020年第7卷第2期页码 204-222 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0040-5

摘要： Real-time decision making reflects the convergence of several digital technologies, including those concerned with the promulgation of artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies that underpin real-time actions. More specifically, real-time decision making can be depicted in terms of three converging dimensions: Internet of Things, decision making, and real-time. The Internet of Things include tangible goods, intangible services, ServGoods, and connected ServGoods. Decision making includes model-based analytics (since before 1990), information-based Big Data (since 1990), and training-based artificial intelligence (since 2000), and it is bolstered by the evolving real-time technologies of sensing (i.e., capturing streaming data), processing (i.e., applying real-time analytics), reacting (i.e., making decisions in real-time), and learning (i.e., employing deep neural networks). Real-time includes mobile networks, autonomous vehicles, and artificial general intelligence. Central to decision making, especially real-time decision making, is the ServGood concept, which the author introduced in an earlier paper (2012). It is a physical product or good encased by a services layer that renders the good more adaptable and smarter for a specific purpose or use. Addition of another communication sensors layer could further enhance its smartness and adaptiveness. Such connected ServGoods constitute a solid foundation for the advanced products of tomorrow which can further display their growing intelligence through real-time decisions.

关键词： real-time decision making services goods ServGoods Big Data Internet of Things artificial intelligence wireless communications

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Current applications of artificial intelligence for intraoperative decision support in surgery

Allison J. Navarrete-Welton, Daniel A. Hashimoto

《医学前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第4期页码 369-381 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0784-7

摘要： Research into medical artificial intelligence (AI) has made significant advances in recent years, including surgical applications. This scoping review investigated AI-based decision support systems targeted at the intraoperative phase of surgery and found a wide range of technological approaches applied across several surgical specialties. Within the twenty-one ( =21) included papers, three main categories of motivations were identified for developing such technologies: (1) augmenting the information available to surgeons, (2) accelerating intraoperative pathology, and (3) recommending surgical steps. While many of the proposals hold promise for improving patient outcomes, important methodological shortcomings were observed in most of the reviewed papers that made it difficult to assess the clinical significance of the reported performance statistics. Despite limitations, the current state of this field suggests that a number of opportunities exist for future researchers and clinicians to work on AI for surgical decision support with exciting implications for improving surgical care.

关键词： artificial intelligence decision support clinical decision support systems intraoperative deep learning computer vision machine learning surgery

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A model for the evaluation of environmental impact indicators for a sustainable maritime transportation systems

Lizzette Pérez LESPIER, Suzanna LONG, Tom SHOBERG, Steven CORNS

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2019年第6卷第3期页码 368-383 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0004-9

摘要： Maritime shipping is considered the most efficient, low-cost means for transporting large quantities of freight over significant distances. However, this process also causes negative environmental and societal impacts. Therefore, environmental sustainability is a pressing issue for maritime shipping management, given the interest in addressing important issues that affect the safety, security, and air and water quality as part of the efficient movement of freight throughout the coasts and waterways and associated port facilities worldwide. In-depth studies of maritime transportation systems (MTS) can be used to identify key environmental impact indicators within the transportation system. This paper develops a tool for decision making in complex environments; this tool will quantify and rank preferred environmental impact indicators within a MTS. Such a model will help decision-makers to achieve the goals of improved environmental sustainability. The model will also provide environmental policy-makers in the shipping industry with an analytical tool that can evaluate tradeoffs within the system and identify possible alternatives to mitigate detrimental effects on the environment.

关键词： Environmental sustainability maritime transportation system environmental impact indicators fuzzy analytic hierarchy process fuzzy TOPSIS decision-making tool

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Challenges of human–machine collaboration in risky decision-making

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2022年第9卷第1期页码 89-103 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0182-0

摘要： The purpose of this paper is to delineate the research challenges of human–machine collaboration in risky decision-making. Technological advances in machine intelligence have enabled a growing number of applications in human–machine collaborative decision-making. Therefore, it is desirable to achieve superior performance by fully leveraging human and machine capabilities. In risky decision-making, a human decision-maker is vulnerable to cognitive biases when judging the possible outcomes of a risky event, whereas a machine decision-maker cannot handle new and dynamic contexts with incomplete information well. We first summarize features of risky decision-making and possible biases of human decision-makers therein. Then, we argue the necessity and urgency of advancing human–machine collaboration in risky decision-making. Afterward, we review the literature on human–machine collaboration in a general decision context, from the perspectives of human–machine organization, relationship, and collaboration. Lastly, we propose challenges of enhancing human–machine communication and teamwork in risky decision-making, followed by future research avenues.

关键词： human–machine collaboration risky decision-making human–machine team and interaction task allocation human–machine relationship